Category Archives: alemtuzumab

Biogen Idec, multiple sclerosis, and the anti-Lingo story

$BIIB, AbbVie, alemtuzumab, Aubagio, dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, Gilenya, immunology, inflammation, autoimmunity, fibrosis, Lemtrada, monoclonal antibodies, MS, multiple sclerosis, natalizumab, Novartis, rituximab, Roche, RRMS, S1P, Tecfidera, Tysabri, Uncategorized

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It’s AAN conference week, and we were looking around, trying to get caught up on multiple sclerosis after a few months dedicated to oncology. We stumbled across this analyst report, and just had to comment.

Credit Suisse (CS) recently released a deep-dive report on Biogen Idec’s (Nasdaq: BIIB) anti-Lingo antibody program, assigning between $5-10BB (billion) USD of the total relapsing/remitting Multiple Sclerosis (rrMS) market share to the program by 2020. The program is currently in Phase 2. This analysis, in part, supports CS’s current price target for BIIB stock at $400, leveraging presumed growth due to the view on continued success of the anti-Lingo program. In other words, positive news on this program will help support inflated multiples through 2018, when pivotal trials may actually read out. The analysis seems ill considered, misses key aspects of BIIB corporate strategy, and places undo pressure on an early Phase 2 program. Further, intense focus on the anti-Lingo antibody program in turn places pressure on two early phase clinical trials, one due to read out in 2H14. The implication is that the base case for the price target could be undermined if the very early clinical development of the anti-Lingo program falters. That’s an unfair burden for a single high-risk program to bear.

Let’s dive in. Our focus will be on the science, but we’ll first set the stage. Our driving goal when looking at any biotech company or program is to bet the science, not the hype.

Two years ago the company set an internal goal of “400 in 5”, essentially promising to drive EPS in support of a sustained stock price of $400 USD by 2017. They came close during the biotech bubble that burst earlier this year. The stock is holding its’ own at around $320 USD. The “400 in 5” goal is in place irrespective of the success or failure of the anti-Lingo program, which cannot read out pivotal clinical trials until at least mid-2018. With that in mind we can deconstruct the CS analysis, and create our own. Importantly, our analysis drastically de-risks the impact of the anti-Lingo program on the trajectory of BIIB growth, while leaving room for very attractive upside if this program hits.

The CS analysis correctly estimates that oral MS drugs will take over an increasing % of market share running from 2014 through 2020. No argument there, and BIIB will take the bulk of this market with Tecfidera, per multiple analysts. But CS believes that the “pipeline focus” is on the anti-Lingo antibody program to will help drive the stock price as the program matures. A few comments:

1) Analyst and/or investor focus on the anti-Lingo program is a sign of pipeline weakness, not strength. Where, one might ask, is the rest of the pipeline?

2) The program is very high-risk (and thus high return) for multiple reasons beyond the inherent weakness of being in Phase 2.

3) Management recognizes the oversized risk of the program, and will not tether stock performance to this program, instead they will act to de-risk the pipeline and performance.

Let’s look at these points one by one. First, the portfolio and pipeline. We agree that top-line growth will continue to be robust, driven by Tecfidera in the expanding orals segment of the market. We believe that the Daclizumab program is likely to succeed (the data being shown at AAN this week is very good) but it seems likely that this drug will compete for the declining injectable biologics market share with Tysabri. Maybe not, if it is successfully positioned for JC virus antibody positive patients, and can hold off the orals. Ocrelizumab may successfully evolve into the successor for Rituxan, an anti-CD20 antibody pulled from the MS market by Genentech/Roche because of exposure to generics competition. STX-100, an excellent program for fibrosis, is emerging into a rapidly evolving IPF treatment landscape (pirfenidone, nintedanib), and we’ll see if the company can eventually steer this drug into other indications, such as systemic sclerosis. The hemophilia biologics Eloctate and Alprolix are approved and launch-ready, with a consensus view that these will pull in 500MM over the first full year of sales, rising to 1BB by 2018. That’s already baked into the current forecasts.  The rest of the programs are as high risk as the anti-Lingo program, so let’s be conservative and assume half or more of these programs eventually fail. Point #2 is that the anti-Lingo program is high risk and can fail for a variety of reasons. At least three can be articulated. First, the therapeutic hypothesis, that axonal regeneration can be induced by a therapeutic in the setting of MS, has never been demonstrated. So there is an inherent biology risk. Second, the preclinical data package supports the hypothesis that blocking Lingo will improve myelin sheath regeneration and axonal function after insult or injury. However the preclinical package using MS animal models is very weak. Finally, the technical hypothesis, that sufficient quantity of antibody can be delivered across the blood-brain barrier in a robust and reproducible manner, patient to patient, has not been demonstrated. So there is an inherent technical risk. It’s also critical to note that the optic neuritis trial, the first Phase 2 to read out, perhaps addresses the therapeutic hypothesis (we could debate this, but won’t) but simply fails to address the technical hypothesis. Focusing investor attention on a Phase 2 readout in optic neuritis as a surrogate for efficacy in MS is a shell game that will go bad quickly if that Phase 2 trials comes in with negative results.

So we agree with CS that anti-Lingo antibody might work in rrMS, and it might not. We disagree that this program should be the focus of interest in the pipeline. We disagree outright with a few of their more outlandish predictions, including the statement that anti-Lingo “has potential in SPMS” the progressive and untreated form of the disease. There is no support for this statement. And while we agree that anti-Lingo is likely to be used in combination with other BIIB MS drugs, trials supporting such use are a very long way away. There is no basis to evaluate such a statement at this time. Finally, instead of concluding that pipeline focus on the anti-Lingo program is a positive, as CS does, we see this as a sign of a fundamentally weak BIIB pipeline.

Should we be surprised? Let’s consider that BIIB has not successfully developed a novel internal program since Avonex and Amevive, well over 15 years ago (yes there is Peligry, but that’s just pegylated-interferon, still, they did develop it). What else? Rituxan came from Idec. Tysabri came from Elan. Tecfidera came from Fumapharm. Daclizumab came from PDL Biopharma/Abbvie. Ocrelizumab came from Genentech/Roche. Long acting Factors XIII and XI came from Syntonix Pharmaceuticals. STX-100 is a BIIB moelcule but had to leave for 5 years in order to be successfully developed by Stromedix. In the meantime the Immunology Department has produced no drugs since it’s inception in the mid-80s, well over 20 years ago. The oncology experiment (BIIB San Diego) produced no drugs. The BIIB hemophilia group will produce no new drugs (more on this below). The medicinal chemistry effort has produced no drugs (although we think they will). The BIIB neurology research group has produced no drugs outside of the interferon space, although they are getting closer (anti-Lingo, BIIB037). So why is this company even competitive, indeed dominant, in MS?

The answer is simple and compelling. BIIB excels in the development of in-licensed, clinical stage MS programs. Look at what they’ve brought in and then brought to registration: Tysabri is the single best MS drug available (nothing else is even close); Tecfidera is the single best oral MS drug, and again it’s not even close; Daclizumab will present an extraordinary efficacy/safety profile, and so on. Let’s also consider that while BIIB was accumulating and developing these assets, their competition was developing cladribine, alemtuzumab (campath), lemtrada, aubagio and other hideous potions. Even Novartis came razor close to missing with Gilenya, a nicely efficacious drug that has a challenging toxicity history

Perhaps anti-Lingo antibody will join the BIIB parade of success in MS, but company management is not counting on it. When management set a goal of “400 in 5” in 2012, they meant it, which means they cannot wait for anti-Lingo or any other early Phase 2 program to mature. This is our final point from above, that management will de-risk the pipeline. This means they have 2 choices, and they have been excellent at executing on either or both of these choices:

1) Buy a late clinical stage MS asset/company.

2) Cut costs in order to manage EPS aggressively.

A third possible outcome of course is that they will do both. A very interesting question is: what attractive MS asset/company could BIIB buy? There are some very compelling answers, and maybe we’ll share these, but not today. A less interesting question, because the answer is so obvious, is where to cut. Let’s go back to those hemophilia drugs, brought in on a wave of enthusiasm for the much broader hematology space. What happened? When costs needed to be trimmed a “strategic review” quickly revealed that hematology was not so attractive after all. So the hemophilia R&D group was slashed, and only the clinical programs retained. Note further that those Factor XIII and Factor XI drugs are utlilizing very valuable and expensive bio-manufacturing capacity for the company. What might happen here? BIIB could sell the programs for 10-20x annual sales to Bayer or Novo Nordisk and keep the manufacturing rights for 5 years or more. We’re just guessing, but we also think it’s a very good bet.

The other obvious target is the Immunology group. A possible hint here is that a new department has been formed, carrying the name Remodeling and Repair or something similar. The department is built around the very interesting Phase 2 fibrosis program STX-100, mentioned above. A simple decision would be to move the few Immunology clinical assets (the anti-TWEAK and anti-CD40L antibodies) under this new department, and jettison the Immunology Research efforts. Such a move would mimic what was done in the hematology space, and would further move the company further away from basic Research, which historically has failed to move therapeutics forward, and further toward Development: in-licensing, clinical execution, regulatory execution and bio-manufacturing, the company’s true core competencies.

Will BIIB do any of these things? We have no idea. But we have watched this company for a long time, and if top-line results fail to drive EPS to the goals promised, the company will act decisively to control the bottom line. Personally, we expect to see an acquisition in short order, rather than further cuts. Just to reinforce what we said at the beginning: the proposed corporate strategy fundamentally de-risks the impact on the anti-Lingo program on the company fortunes, leaving intact the potential for a large upside if that program performs well in the clinic.

disclosures: PDR was a senior member of BIIB’s Immunology department for a long time, and retains both positive and negative biases. PDR is also long BIIB stock.

stay tuned

Alemtuzumab and MS – Just The Facts

alemtuzumab, dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, Gilenya, Lemtrada, multiple sclerosis, natalizumab, Relapse Rate, Tecfidera, Tysabri

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Lemtrada For Multiple Sclerosis – Just The Facts

The debate over the FDA’s reluctance to approve alemtuzumab (brand name Lemtrada, an anti-CD52 antibody, aka Campath) continues, with heated opinions being expressed, mainly by those that want Lemtrada approved. We note without comment that a fair number of the FDA’s fiercest critics have exposure to stock warrants tied to this drug’s commercial success. The FDA stance seems to some to be overly tough, particularly as the drug has been approved for MS in other markets, notably the often risk-adverse EU.

I’ve been puzzled by this debate, and more puzzled since it is taken place more of less without discussion of the Phase 3 clinical trial data. Granted this is hard for some of us to get. I do not have the FDA documents for example. The clinical trial data is behind a paywall at the Lancet, and I’m just annoyed enough at the price to resist paying it. So let’s see what we can do using just publicly available information.

The Lancet summaries are available. Here is the first one (via http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61769-3/abstract):

Background

The anti-CD52 monoclonal antibody alemtuzumab reduced disease activity in a phase 2 trial of previously untreated patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. We aimed to assess efficacy and safety of first-line alemtuzumab compared with interferon beta 1a in a phase 3 trial.

Methods

In our 2 year, rater-masked, randomised controlled phase 3 trial, we enrolled adults aged 18—50 years with previously untreated relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Eligible participants were randomly allocated in a 2:1 ratio by an interactive voice response system, stratified by site, to receive intravenous alemtuzumab 12 mg per day or subcutaneous interferon beta 1a 44 μg. Interferon beta 1a was given three-times per week and alemtuzumab was given once per day for 5 days at baseline and once per day for 3 days at 12 months. Coprimary endpoints were relapse rate and time to 6 month sustained accumulation of disability in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00530348.

Findings

187 (96%) of 195 patients randomly allocated interferon beta 1a and 376 (97%) of 386 patients randomly allocated alemtuzumab were included in the primary analyses. 75 (40%) patients in the interferon beta 1a group relapsed (122 events) compared with 82 (22%) patients in the alemtuzumab group (119 events; rate ratio 0·45 [95% CI 0·32—0·63]; p<0.0001), corresponding to a 54·9% improvement with alemtuzumab. Based on Kaplan-Meier estimates, 59% of patients in the interferon beta 1a group were relapse-free at 2 years compared with 78% of patients in the alemtuzumab group (p<0·0001). 20 (11%) of patients in the interferon beta 1a group had sustained accumulation of disability compared with 30 (8%) in the alemtuzumab group (hazard ratio 0·70 [95% CI 0·40—1·23]; p=0·22). 338 (90%) of patients in the alemtuzumab group had infusion-associated reactions; 12 (3%) of which were regarded as serious. Infections, predominantly of mild or moderate severity, occurred in 253 (67%) patients treated with alemtuzumab versus 85 (45%) patients treated with interferon beta 1a. 62 (16%) patients treated with alemtuzumab had herpes infections (predominantly cutaneous) compared with three (2%) patients treated with interferon beta 1a. By 24 months, 68 (18%) patients in the alemtuzumab group had thyroid-associated adverse events compared with 12 (6%) in the interferon beta 1a group, and three (1%) had immune thrombocytopenia compared with none in the interferon beta 1a group. Two patients in the alemtuzumab group developed thyroid papillary carcinoma.

Interpretation

Alemtuzumab’s consistent safety profile and benefit in terms of reductions of relapse support its use for patients with previously untreated relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis; however, benefit in terms of disability endpoints noted in previous trials was not observed here.

What is this telling us?

1) this is a 2-year trial in previously untreated MS patients; the dose regimen is 12 mg daily for 5 days and then at 12 months a second regimen of 12 mg daily for 3 days
2) the active comparator is Rebif, a beta-interferon
3) there was a benefit seen in relapse rate: about 20% fewer patients had a relapse in the alemtuzumab arm as compared to the Rebif arm
4) there was no improvement in time to 6-month sustained accumulation of disability
5) 90% of alemtuzumab patients had infusion reactions but only 3% on these were serious
6) Over 60% of patients experienced infections, over 60% developed cutaneous herpes, over 60% developed thyroid associated adverse events, and 1% developed immune thrombocytopenia.

Summary: alemtuzumab hit one of its primary endpoints, missed the second, and had a challenging toxicity profile.

How about that second paper in Lancet? Well, here is the abstract (via http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61768-1/abstract)

Background

The anti-CD52 monoclonal antibody alemtuzumab reduces disease activity in previously untreated patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. We aimed to assess efficacy and safety of alemtuzumab compared with interferon beta 1a in patients who have relapsed despite first-line treatment.

Methods

In our 2 year, rater-masked, randomised controlled phase 3 trial, we enrolled adults aged 18—55 years with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and at least one relapse on interferon beta or glatiramer. Eligible participants were randomly allocated in a 1:2:2 ratio by an interactive voice response system, stratified by site, to receive subcutaneous interferon beta 1a 44 μg, intravenous alemtuzumab 12 mg per day, or intravenous alemtuzumab 24 mg per day. Interferon beta 1a was given three-times per week and alemtuzumab was given once per day for 5 days at baseline and for 3 days at 12 months. The 24 mg per day group was discontinued to aid recruitment, but data are included for safety assessments. Coprimary endpoints were relapse rate and time to 6 month sustained accumulation of disability, comparing alemtuzumab 12 mg and interferon beta 1a in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00548405.

Findings

202 (87%) of 231 patients randomly allocated interferon beta 1a and 426 (98%) of 436 patients randomly allocated alemtuzumab 12 mg were included in the primary analyses. 104 (51%) patients in the interferon beta 1a group relapsed (201 events) compared with 147 (35%) patients in the alemtuzumab group (236 events; rate ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·39—0·65]; p<0·0001), corresponding to a 49·4% improvement with alemtuzumab. 94 (47%) patients in the interferon beta 1a group were relapse-free at 2 years compared with 278 (65%) patients in the alemtuzumab group (p<0·0001). 40 (20%) patients in the interferon beta 1a group had sustained accumulation of disability compared with 54 (13%) in the alemtuzumab group (hazard ratio 0·58 [95% CI 0·38—0·87]; p=0·008), corresponding to a 42% improvement in the alemtuzumab group. For 435 patients allocated alemtuzumab 12 mg, 393 (90%) had infusion-associated reactions, 334 (77%) had infections (compared with 134 [66%] of 202 patients in the interferon beta 1a group) that were mostly mild-moderate with none fatal, 69 (16%) had thyroid disorders, and three (1%) had immune thrombocytopenia.

Interpretation

For patients with first-line treatment-refractory relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, alemtuzumab could be used to reduce relapse rates and sustained accumulation of disability. Suitable risk management strategies allow for early identification of alemtuzumab’s main adverse effect of secondary autoimmunity.

Again, what is this telling us?

1) this is a 2-year trial in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and at least one relapse on interferon beta or glatiramer; the dose regimen is 12 mg or 24 mg daily for 5 days and then at 12 months a second regimen of 12 mg or 24 mg daily for 3 days. The 24 mg dose was discontinued.
2) the active comparator was Rebif, a beta-interferon
3) there was a benefit seen in relapse rate: 16% fewer patients experienced a relapse on alemtuzumab as compared to Rebif
4) importantly, 65% of patients were relapse free at 2 years
5) there was an improvement in time to 6-month sustained accumulation of disability
6) 90% of alemtuzumab patients had infusion reactions
7) 77% of alemtuzumab patients experienced infections, 16% developed thyroid associated adverse events, and 1% developed immune thrombocytopenia.
Summary: alemtuzumab hit both of its primary endpoints and had a challenging toxicity profile.

How does this efficacy compare to other treatments? The reduction in annualized relapse rate (ARR) lies between the beta-interferons or copaxone and highly efficacious drugs like natalizumab (Tysabri), daclizumab or fingolimod (Gilenya). The following data are taken from the UPTODATE website, last updated January 15, 2014.
(http://www.uptodate.com/contents/treatment-of-relapsing-remitting-multiple-sclerosis-in-adults)

agenttrial(s)ARR (across doses)ARR/comparatorSAD met?
dimethyl fumarate (Tecfidera)CONFIRM24%40% (placebo)trend/ns
dimethyl fumarate (Tecfidera)DEFINE18%36% (placebo)yes
fingolimod (Gilenya)FREEDOMS17%40% (placebo)yes
fingolimod (Gilenya)TRANSFORMS18%36% (interferon beta 1-a)not assessed
alemtuzumab (Lemtrada)CARE-MS I22%40% (interferon beta 1-a)no
alemtuzumab (Lemtrada)CARE-MS II (relapsed patients)35%53% (interferon beta 1-a)yes
natalizumab (Tysabri)AFFIRM (relapsed patients)26%81% (placebo)yes
natalizumab (Tysabri)SENTINEL (relapsed patients)38%82% (placebo)yes

So it seems to me that we have an efficacy/toxicity profile on a par with fingolimod and natalizumab. Of note, the UPTODATE profile concludes the section of alemtuzumab as follows:

“Although its precise role in the management of RRMS is not yet settled, alemtuzumab will probably be used as a second-line agent for patients with RRMS who have an inadequate response to treatment with interferons and glatiramer. The role that alemtuzumab will play in the context of other newer MS disease-modifying agents (eg, fingolimod, teriflunomide, and BG-12) is still undefined. Alemtuzumab therapy requires monitoring for infusion reactions and prophylaxis for herpes virus infections and Pneumocystis jirovecii (PCP) pneumonia during treatment and for several weeks after treatment. Prolonged surveillance for bone marrow suppression, infections, and autoimmune disorders such as immune thrombocytopenia is also necessary.”

So that seems to be the heart of the problem, that the comparison to the most relevant medications is not well defined and you have a lot of toxicity that requires monitoring.

As the title said, “just the facts” – I don’t aim to draw conclusions here but just lay out the data so when we see arguments pro or con for this drug, we have a place to turn to look at the data.