Dear readers and clients of sugarconebiotech.com,
Sunday’s NY Times did us the favor of moving the discussion about Sovaldi from treatment of HCV to HCV cure (nyti.ms/1tHcFIw). It’s about time…
We present a compelling report from Dr. Paul De Santis on the valuation and future of Gilead Sciences (GILD): Alpha BioPharma Evidence-Driven Rebuttal to Morgan and Goldman, Summary & Marketing Report.
On the heals of their impressive quarterly earnings and heading toward a transformative year, Gilead faces fundamental issues. Dr. De Santis uses comprehensive and relentless analysis, deeply vetted, to trace the paths Gilead may take, and argues that bearish analyses from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and others have led the Street to fundamentally undervalue this innovative, aggressive and ultimately triumphant company.
In the full report Dr. De Santis covers critical topics including
M&A: GILD will have the capacity to repurchase their entire market cap by 2020.
HCV PRICING: Sovaldi pricing pressure will ease as the discussion shifts to cost per cure, not cost per treatment. Further, the emerging HCV competition (MRK, BMY, ABBV) has little incentive to discount price – consensus forecastsrely on premium pricing.
HCV, EMERGING MARKETS: Sovaldi has first mover advantage in 26 Emerging Markets. The pricing model/methodology presented in this report was confirmed by GILD management – no sell-side firm has put together such a comprehensive model on E.M.
PIPELINE: Gilead will leverage $100B in FCF to accelerate their transformation into a premier Oncology franchise
SUSTAINABILITY: As we’ve seen in other chronic diseases (MS, RA) the arrival of transformative therapies will drive market expansion over many years
If you maintain or trade positions in GILD, it’s competitors, partners or takeover targets I kindly suggest you acquire his detailed 145 page report. Pricing and download information are available directly from Dr. De Santis at drpauldesantis@
We support this report based on the very high quality and content and our respect for the work of Dr. De Santis and his firm AlphaBioPharma.
To be fair, we are also long GILD.